In January 2026, the gold price set a new all-time record — around $5,590 per troy ounce, on January 28. Since then, the metal has fallen around 25 percent and is now trading at around $4,174. For the long-term investor, the question is simple: is this a crash, or a correction?
The price drop has brought gold down significantly from its record levels, but today’s price is still well above the low of the past year. Over the last twelve months, gold has traded between around $3,949 and $5,405 per troy ounce. As of October 12, the price stands at $4,186.50 – closer to the yearly low than the peak.
Source: karasmussen.com. (Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.)
What’s behind the price drop?
Analysts point to several factors that have pulled in the same direction. A stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for investors outside the US and can dampen demand. Interest rates have also risen, and when interest-bearing investments offer higher returns, the opportunity cost of holding gold – which generates no ongoing income – increases.
At the same time, some of the uncertainty that contributed to the sharp price rise earlier in the year has eased. After several years of strong gains, this has contributed to a significant correction from the record levels.
The long-term outlook has not necessarily changed
The price drop has dampened optimism in the gold market, but several leading players believe the long-term drivers remain intact. Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, believes the correction has reduced speculative positioning without changing the structural picture for gold. She estimates an average gold price of $4,500 per troy ounce in 2026. (Kitco News, July 7, 2026)
Forecasts further ahead also point to higher prices than today’s level. According to Finansavisen, Morgan Stanley estimates an average gold price of $5,050 in 2027. At this year’s LBMA conference in London, delegates’ average estimate was $5,013 per troy ounce in twelve months’ time – around 20 percent above the spot price at the time. However, forecasts are uncertain, and the gold price may still fluctuate significantly in the short term. (Finansavisen, August 20, 2026 / Kitco News, October 6, 2026)
At the same time, central banks continue to be important buyers of gold. China has increased its gold reserves throughout 2026, while Nederlandsche Bank recently repatriated 86 tonnes of gold from abroad. This is not in itself a signal of where the gold price is headed next, but it illustrates gold’s continued central role as a reserve asset. (Finansavisen, October 7, 2026), (Finansavisen, September 2, 2026).
Why do investors choose physical gold?
For many investors, gold is about more than short-term price developments. Physical gold provides direct ownership of a tangible asset, with no fund manager or issuer standing between the investor and the metal.
Gold has long been used as a store of value and as a complement to traditional investments in stocks and bonds. For investors wishing to spread risk across different asset classes, physical gold can therefore be part of a long-term portfolio.
Internationally recognized investment coins and bars can also be traded through established precious metal dealers worldwide.
View the selection and buy directly here: nettbutikk.karasmussen.com
How to invest in physical gold
K.A. Rasmussen has refined and traded precious metals since 1872. In the online store, private individuals can buy physical investment coins and bars in gold and silver, among others, with prices that follow developments in the international precious metals market.
Among the most well-known gold coins are the Maple Leaf, Krugerrand, and Britannia – internationally recognized investment coins that are easy to identify and trade.
Investment gold that meets the regulatory requirements is exempt from VAT in Norway. The price mainly consists of the metal value and a premium that covers, among other things, production and trading.
View the selection and buy directly here
SDBullion — Gold Prices 2026 — https://sdbullion.com/gold-prices-2026
Kitco News — Nicky Shiels / MKS PAMP, July 7, 2026 — https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-07/gold-correction-has-reset-market-mks-shiels-still-sees-4500-average-price
Finansavisen — Morgan Stanley, August 20, 2026 — https://www.finansavisen.no/ravarer/2026/08/20/8374507/morgan-stanley-spar-gullpris-over-5.000-dollar-i-2027
Kitco News — LBMA, October 6, 2026 — https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-06/gold-hit-5000-silver-97-next-12-months-lbma-delegate-survey
Finansavisen — China, October 7, 2026 — https://www.finansavisen.no/ravarer/2026/10/07/8385942/kina-kjoper-gull-med-begge-hender
Finansavisen — Nederlandsche Bank, September 2, 2026 — https://www.finansavisen.no/ravarer/2026/09/02/8377539/nederland-sentralbanken-flyttet-86-tonn-gull
